[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 291926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291925
ALZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...parts of middle and northwestern Tennessee into
southwestern Kentucky and the Missouri Bootheel

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417...

Valid 291925Z - 292130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development posing
a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts remains possible into
the 3-5 PM CDT time frame.  Trends will continue to be monitored for
the possibility of additional severe weather watches to the west and
south of WW 417.

DISCUSSION...A persistent area of weak convective development, which
appears rooted in mid-level warm advection, has been slowly
overspreading parts of the Mid South, generally near and south of
the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers.  This is near the
stalling western flank of convective outflow, trailing a small
forward propagating convective cluster which has undergone recent
weakening south of the Nashville vicinity.

Despite the tendency for increasing inhibition associated with the
mid-level warming, this has been countered by seasonably strong
boundary-layer heating into the mid/upper 90s F, along and west of
the stalled outflow where dew points are in the mid/upper 70s.  This
has supported the development of extreme potential instability (CAPE
on the order of 4000 J/kg), which could support at least isolated,
rapid intense thunderstorm development during the next few hours.
Beneath modest northwesterly mid-level flow, if this occurs, storms
may become capable of producing large hail and damaging downbursts.

..Kerr.. 06/29/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36678786 35568670 35198603 34558639 34778784 35118789
            35908885 36419038 36878908 36678786
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