[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 301509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301508
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-301645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Areas affected...southeast TN into northwest GA and far northeast AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 301508Z - 301645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A southward moving cluster of storms may sporadically
produce gusty winds around 40-50 mph through early afternoon across
parts of southeast Tennessee into adjacent portions of northwest
Georgia and northeast Alabama. A severe thunderstorm watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms over southeast TN is tracking
southward along an instability gradient amid moderate mid/upper
northerly flow. MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and modest effective
shear may allow this cluster to persist another couple of hours.
Severe potential is expected to remain limited as convection is
behind an outflow boundary from early morning storms. Strong
boundary-layer inhibition behind the outflow boundary will limit
stronger downburst potential. Some gusts around 40-50 mph will be
possible over the next 1-2 hours, but severe potential is expected
to remain low and a watch is not expected.

..Leitman/Grams.. 06/30/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34498550 34578569 34868578 35438571 35738555 35868537
            35518470 34708459 34508490 34458533 34498550
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