[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 291713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291712
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-291915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Areas affected...southern Illinois...southwestern Indiana...parts of
western Kentucky into middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...416...

Valid 291712Z - 291915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414, 416
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized cluster of storms probably will be maintained
south-southeastward across much of middle Tennessee through 3-4 PM
CDT, with renewed strong to severe storm development possible across
southern Illinois.  A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to
replace severe thunderstorm watch 414 prior to its scheduled
expiration.

DISCUSSION...Although there has been some fluctuation in cloud tops,
high lightning flash rates and 30-50 kt rear inflow have generally
been maintained with the forward propagating cluster now approaching
the Great Nashville Metropolitan area.  With continuing
boundary-layer warming contributing to destabilization and weakening
inhibition ahead of activity, it seems probable that activity will
persist with little change in intensity across much of middle
Tennessee, into the Tennessee/Alabama/northwestern Georgia state
border vicinity through 19-21Z.

Otherwise, weaker convection lingers upstream, aided by warm
advection above the trailing outflow boundary.  This extends across
western Kentucky into southern Illinois, where outflow on the
southern flank of an approaching mesoscale convective system may
enhance lift and support intensifying renewed thunderstorm
development within the next few hours.  Aided by inflow of air
characterized by large CAPE, this may initially be accompanied by a
risk for large hail.

..Kerr.. 06/29/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...
LSX...

LAT...LON   36888604 36218555 35678538 35188575 35078636 35208705
            36268795 37458879 38098929 38828978 38998821 38278738
            36888604
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