[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 051850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051849
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0937
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern TN...Western NC...Far northern
GA...Upstate SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051849Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible this afternoon, with a
threat of locally damaging gusts and isolated hail.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of a modestly moist environment has
resulted in the development of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg) this afternoon from eastern TN into western NC.
Storms have recently developed to the north and west of Knoxville,
and additional development is expected later this afternoon into
parts of western NC.

Deep-layer flow is generally weak, but modest midlevel
northwesterlies are supporting effective shear of 20-25 kt across
the region, with some increase in shear possible later this
afternoon across northern and eastern areas of the MCD area. A few
stronger multicell storms will be possible, with locally damaging
gusts and isolated hail possible as storms generally propagate
southward this afternoon. The environment across western NC into
upstate SC may become somewhat more favorable with time (compared to
areas to the west), and a marginal supercell or two cannot be ruled
out as effective shear potentially increases into the 30-35 kt range
later this afternoon.

In general, the severe threat is expected to remain rather marginal
and isolated across the region, and watch issuance is considered
unlikely.

..Dean/Grams.. 06/05/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   36418409 36258174 36208125 35778101 34978126 34398250
            34378314 34528424 34888497 35198549 35338562 35748528
            36068489 36418409
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