[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 041804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041803
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0934
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

Areas affected...portions of Western and Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041803Z - 042000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk of damaging wind and hail with afternoon
thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation has started earlier than
suggested in most morning CAM guidance across portions of Middle
Tennessee. Daytime heating and dew points in the 60s have resulted
in MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. RAP sounding analysis indicates
steep lapse rates through the profile, which will support a marginal
risk of severe hail though shear is minimal. Nickel size hail has
been observed with earlier storms near Dickson, TN. As storm
coverage increases through the afternoon, clustering will be likely
with upscale growth along outflows. This mode transition will lead
to a risk of locally damaging winds. Given weak flow and minimal
shear for organization, the threats will likely remain too isolated
for watch consideration.

..Thornton/Grams.. 06/04/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36468873 36738849 36698737 36638702 36628695 36598585
            36618543 36568494 36308491 36158500 35988499 35798528
            35538561 35378574 35238589 35128593 34968592 34798573
            34598560 34348580 34278620 34378661 34548694 34748735
            35018783 35368851 36168888 36468873
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