[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue Jan 3 01:37:13 CST 2023

ACUS11 KWNS 030737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030736
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

Areas affected...Northern Louisiana...Southeast Arkansas...Northwest
Mississippi...Western Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...4...5...

Valid 030736Z - 030930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 4, 5 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across watches 3, 4
and 5 for several more hours, with tornadoes and wind damage being
the primary threats. Consolidation of the watches will likely take
place within the next two hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large area of
thunderstorms from southeast Missouri and western Kentucky extending
southwestward into eastern Arkansas. A few rotating storms are
embedded within the complex, along with several short bowing line
segments. As this area of moderate to heavy rainfall moves eastward,
the severe threat will continue across western Kentucky, western
Tennessee, northwest Mississippi and northeast Louisiana. Although
instability is generally weak, WSR-88D VWPs at Memphis and Paducah
have long hodographs with some curvature. 0-6 km shear is generally
around 60 kts with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2.
This environment will continue to support a threat for tornadoes
over the next few hours. Bowing line segments will also have
potential for wind damage.

..Broyles.. 01/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   34628833 35598771 36098772 36398801 36478846 36448898
            36158943 35728963 35508973 34969028 33809172 32909298
            32309365 31879382 31569375 31299357 31179326 31189279
            31419220 32469075 33228980 34628833
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