[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022248
TNZ000-KYZ000-030045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...Middle TN into far south-central KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 022248Z - 030045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind and marginal hail will be possible
as a storm cluster moves northeastward this evening. Watch issuance
is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster has recently organized across
middle TN, along the eastern periphery of the buoyant warm sector
associated with a gradually deepening cyclone across the southern
Plains. Modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg) is in place
downstream of this cluster, with effective shear of 40-45 kt
supporting some storm organization. Limited instability will likely
temper the severe threat with this cluster as it moves
northeastward, but locally damaging gusts and/or isolated marginal
hail will be possible into early evening. Watch issuance is
currently considered unlikely.

..Dean/Thompson.. 01/02/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   35678663 35488783 36328745 36788667 36758606 36268610
            35798652 35678663
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