[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue Jan 3 02:08:46 CST 2023

ACUS11 KWNS 030808
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030808
KYZ000-TNZ000-031045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

Areas affected...Southern Kentucky...Northern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 030808Z - 031045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated potential for tornadoes and wind damage will
likely continue for a couple more hours across southern Kentucky and
northern Tennessee. The magnitude and duration of the threat is not
as favorable as further to the southwest, however weather watch
issuance will still be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from
Louisville shows a northeast-to-southwest oriented band of
thunderstorms across northern and western Kentucky. The more intense
storms are located along the southern end of this band, where the
RAP has MLCAPE estimated near 500 J/kg. As moisture advection
continues overnight, instability may increase some across northern
Tennessee and western Kentucky. This, combined with 0-6 km shear
near 60 knots, should be enough to maintain an isolated severe
threat for convection moving northeastward out of western Tennessee.
0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range,
evident on the VWP, should be sufficient for a marginal tornado
threat with the stronger rotating storms. A wind-damage threat will
also be possible. However, the weak buoyancy should keep any
wind-damage or tornado threat localized.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 01/03/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36188516 36648479 37158476 37398496 37538538 37608595
            37578652 37488698 37388750 37308779 37118817 36808841
            36488847 36368846 36048816 36008730 36008628 36028564
            36188516
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