[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181838
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-182045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0812
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Areas affected...Southern IN...Western/Central KS...Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 181838Z - 182045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards
are possible this afternoon. Uncertainty regarding development
limits overall forecast confidence, but convective trends are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...A strong mesoscale convective vortex generated by last
nights thunderstorms across the central Plains is currently centered
near the southern IL/IN border (approximately 50 miles north of
EVV). A cluster of showers and thunderstorms over southern IN
immediately precedes this vortex. Areas farther south/southeast have
yet to destabilize as the best low-level moisture (i.e. mid 60s
dewpoints) currently remains south of western/middle TN.

The greatest near-term severe thunderstorms potential appears to be
with the ongoing cluster near the vorticity maximum, but the lack of
stronger buoyancy should keep any hail or damaging wind gusts very
isolated. Farther south, a conditional severe risk will be in place
this afternoon. The main uncertainty is whether or not the favorable
low-level moisture will advect far enough northward before the
ascent attendant to the MCV passes through the region. If storms do
develop, a few supercells capable of all severe hazards are
possible. Convective trends will be monitored closely across this
region this afternoon.

..Mosier/Grams.. 05/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37248815 38428716 38788528 38048430 35798533 35468707
            36128842 37248815
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