[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 152324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152323
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0623 PM CDT Sun May 15 2022

Areas affected...western middle TN...northeast MS...far northwest AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...

Valid 152323Z - 160030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts and
perhaps large hail may move east of severe thunderstorm watch #222
within the next 1-2 hours.  A local extension in area to the
existing watch could be used to address any severe risk that may
develop east of the watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a broken squall line/cluster of
storms over western TN on the southern periphery of a mid-level
shortwave trough moving east-southeast across parts of the Midwest.
Temperatures early this evening are in the mid-upper 80s with
dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s.  The Columbus, MS (KGWX) VAD shows
relatively weak northwesterlies which will act to continue a
southeast storm motion but limit the potential for storm
organization.  It seems like the stronger storm east-northeast of
Memphis will not exit the eastern bound of the watch until after
700-730pm.  Given the a gradual lessening in storm intensity
expected with diurnal heat loss, is seems only a localized risk for
strong to severe storms will include the areas up to 50-75 mi east
of severe thunderstorm watch #222.

..Smith/Hart.. 05/15/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   33988950 36218849 36318787 35898742 34278796 33868882
            33988950
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