[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061806 COR
KYZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-061915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast IN...southwest
OH...northern/central KY...and Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061806Z - 061915Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC LAT/LONG POINTS

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Stronger thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts
and small hail through the afternoon. The overall threat is expected
to remain marginal and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue and possibly increase in
coverage/intensity through the afternoon in the vicinity of a
surface low and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The most
intense cells are currently over Middle TN beneath the midlevel
vorticity maxima. A corridor of modestly steepened midlevel lapse
rates extends from Middle TN northward into southeast IN. These
steeper lapse rates atop low 60s surface dewpoints is resulting in
MLCAPE values up to 500-1000 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes will
remain weak through the day, limiting longevity of any more
organized thunderstorms. Nevertheless, stronger cells and clusters
may produce occasional strong gusts and small hail.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON   39648646 39628510 39448479 38798451 38178449 35418576
            35228675 35438714 36598759 37618745 38938698 39648646
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