[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061742
VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-061915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast IN...southwest
OH...northern/central KY...and Middle TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061742Z - 061915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Stronger thunderstorms may produce isolated strong gusts
and small hail through the afternoon. The overall threat is expected
to remain marginal and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue and possibly increase in
coverage/intensity through the afternoon in the vicinity of a
surface low and ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. The most
intense cells are currently over Middle TN beneath the midlevel
vorticity maxima. A corridor of modestly steepened midlevel lapse
rates extends from Middle TN northward into southeast IN. These
steeper lapse rates atop low 60s surface dewpoints is resulting in
MLCAPE values up to 500-1000 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes will
remain weak through the day, limiting longevity of any more
organized thunderstorms. Nevertheless, stronger cells and clusters
may produce occasional strong gusts and small hail.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...

LAT...LON   34488352 34408406 34538466 34658477 35118509 35688508
            36008499 36738455 37168410 37308354 37278292 37128238
            36968211 36698206 36098211 35018270 34488352
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