[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 182005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182004
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-182200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

Areas affected...Lower Ohio Valley Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 182004Z - 182200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity has modestly increased within the
Missouri Bootheel Vicinity. Signs of destabilization are also
evident in western Tennessee. The strongest storms may produce large
hail and isolated wind damage. A tornado is possible near the warm
front. A watch is possible depending on storm coverage and intensity
trends this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends near and ahead of the
advancing cold front show a modest increase in vertical motion. This
is most obvious along the western flank of stable stratiform clouds
in western Tennessee and Kentucky. Dewpoints in these areas have
steadily risen during the day to the mid 50s F in parts of southern
Kentucky to upper 50s F in western Tennessee. This has supported a
recent uptick in storm intensity across the Missouri Bootheel
vicinity where 1 inch hail has recently been reported. Over the next
2-3 hours, additional heating may promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE across
the region. With cold temperatures aloft and 35-45 kts of effective
shear, discrete storms would be capable of large hail and isolated
wind damage. Surface winds ahead of the front have had some tendency
to veer with the greatest pressure falls being analyzed in eastern
Kentucky and southern Ohio. However, VAD winds in the vicinity of
the warm front still show sufficient low-level turning for a tornado
or two with the strongest convection.

Current observational trends would suggest a greater severe threat
may not materialize for another couple of hours, depending on the
degree of destabilization. Given the uncertainty, watch issuance is
uncertain but possible. Trends will continue to be monitored this
afternoon.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 03/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...

LAT...LON   36739096 37379077 37998961 38748736 38928626 38648546
            38048552 37488603 37228628 37018672 36118838 35728958
            36039042 36149056 36739096
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