[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 120733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120733
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-121330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0244
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022

Areas affected...Portions of southern and central Appalachians and
vicinity

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 120733Z - 121330Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow is possible within the southern and central
Appalachians and vicinity. 1-2 inches per hour snowfall is possible
in eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. Rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour
will continue to move northeastward into West Virginia and
western/central Pennsylvania towards early morning.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have been dropping quickly across eastern
Tennessee and Kentucky over the past 1-2 hours as cold air advection
and diabatic cooling have increased. Correlation coefficient data
from KJKL and KMRX show a transition zone from rain to snow roughly
located in the Cumberland Plateau vicinity. This transition zone has
quickly shifted east over the last hour. The combination of
mid-level ascent and upslope flow will support 1-2 inch snowfall
rates along the western slopes into the Appalachians. The greatest
snowfall rates will begin to taper off by 4-6 AM EST.

Farther north, snowfall is increasing across West Virginia into
western Pennsylvania. Several observations sites are reporting
moderate to heavy snow that is has been primarily driven by 850-700
mb frontogentic lift. As the trough moves east and intensifies,
deep-layer ascent will increase in these areas into early Saturday
morning. The potential for 1-1.5 inch snowfall rates will increase
accordingly during the next several hours.

..Wendt.. 03/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
ILN...OHX...

LAT...LON   35138465 35358528 36178495 38028348 38998223 39758112
            40188064 40987979 41587849 41567797 41367742 39687823
            38537909 37677988 37048067 35948210 35138341 35138465
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