[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 182304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182303
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-190030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0283
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0603 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

Areas affected...Portions of western into central Kentucky...extreme
southwest Indiana...extreme southeast Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 182303Z - 190030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe gusts and perhaps a 1-inch hail
report or brief tornado remain possible over the next few hours
across portions of the Ohio Valley. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance remains possible if storms appear to increase in coverage
and intensity.

DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete and small, linear storm structures have
been pulsing in intensity across portions of the Ohio Valley ahead
of the surface low track, where deep-layer ascent is greatest and
where some surface-based buoyancy has been able to materialize given
modest insolation. The primary limiting factor to a more widespread
and robust severe threat continues to be mediocre low-level
moisture. A narrow tongue of mid to upper 50s surface dewpoints
continue to advect northward, immediately ahead of a semi-discrete
supercell over Marshall County, KY, and this narrow corridor appears
to be the most likely area to experience severe weather. HPX and LVX
VWPs depict an eastward shift of the low-level jet axis. These VWPs
show modestly curved hodographs in the 0-3 km layer, with 20Z RAP
forecast soundings showing over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH given around
500 J/kg MLCAPE fueled by the narrow corridor of higher dewpoints.

The main question is how long can the low-level moisture axis
translate eastward in tandem with the storms. In the near term, any
storms interacting with the low-level moisture may produce damaging
gusts, and perhaps an instance of severe hail or a brief tornado.
However, the severe threat is expected to be quite limited outside
of the moisture axis. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be considered
if confidence increases in the ongoing storms progressing through a
longer-term moister environment.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 03/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   36558841 36768864 37268882 37968850 38518739 38838663
            39008594 38758562 38078563 37548591 37018646 36678703
            36608768 36558841
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