[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221146
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0167
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern AR...far southeastern
MO...far southern IL...and western KY/TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 25...

Valid 221146Z - 221315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 25 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues across Tornado Watch
25.

DISCUSSION...The leading edge of a bowing line continues to race
quickly east-northeastward across northeastern AR towards the MS
River. Low 60s surface dewpoints are present ahead of this line into
parts of western/central KY, with surface winds backed to a
southeasterly direction. Boundary-layer instability remains weak
across this region, with MLCAPE generally 250-500 J/kg per recent
mesoanalysis estimates. Regardless, recent VWPs from KNQA/KPAH show
ample low-level and deep-layer shear present to support thunderstorm
organization. The best chance in the short term for strong to
damaging winds and a brief embedded tornado or two should remain
focused with the segment of the bowing line in northeastern
AR/southeastern MO into western KY/TN that has some orthogonal
component to the deep-layer shear vector. Effective SRH also appears
to be maximized in this area with a 50+ southwesterly jet present.
The trailing portion of the line in central AR has acquired a more
parallel northeasterly motion with the strong southwesterly flow
aloft. The overall severe threat with southwestward extent into AR
should become more isolated with time, but occasional strong/gusty
winds will still be possible.

..Gleason.. 02/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34699281 35259184 35689083 36079038 36279010 36858990
            37468943 37488855 37128787 36558766 35448824 35039031
            34479161 34429263 34699281
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
https://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
https://twitter.com/nashwxnet