[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 220901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220900
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

Areas affected...Portions of western into northern AR...southeastern
MO...far southern IL...and western KY/TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 24...

Valid 220900Z - 221030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 24 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk, including the potential for a few
tornadoes, should persist this morning. A new Tornado Watch will
likely need to be issued by 10Z (4 AM CST).

DISCUSSION...A small line segment over western/central AR has shown
recent signs of bowing/surging outflow as it moves quickly eastward.
Some weak boundary-layer convective inhibition is present downstream
of this convection per recent mesoanalysis. Still, gradually
increasing low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints rising into
the low to mid 60s, is expected to be in place ahead of these
thunderstorms into parts of northern/eastern AR, and eventually the
Mid-South region. It remains unclear whether this low-level moisture
will be sufficient to support surface-based convection, but around
500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE and plentiful low-level and deep-layer shear
should continue to support organized updrafts.

Recent VWPs from KLZK show winds quickly veering from southerly to
southwesterly in the 0-1-km layer AGL, with generally unidirectional
but strengthening southwesterly flow in the 1-6-km layer AGL.
Resultant long/straight hodograph above 1 km will probably tend to
support short, bowing line segments moving east-northeastward, like
the one ongoing over western/central AR. Strong to damaging winds
should tend to be the primary severe threat with this mainly linear
storm mode. But, a few embedded low-level circulations may produce a
tornado as effective SRH remains rather strong (around 200-400
m2/s2). With Tornado Watch 24 scheduled to expire at 10Z (4 AM CST),
and the severe threat expected to continue for several more hours
this morning into parts of the Mid-South, a new Tornado Watch will
likely need to be issued within the next hour.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 02/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35179339 36209292 36509209 37229113 37548882 37428783
            37048744 36558750 36028851 35399007 34529203 34679389
            35179339
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