[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 172332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172332
KYZ000-TNZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

Areas affected...Middle/Eastern TN to Central/Eastern KY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 172332Z - 180100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Gusty winds will likely accompany squall line this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Modified boundary-layer moisture has advanced northeast
across middle TN into central KY where surface dew points are in the
upper 50s to near 60F. This is contributing to very weak
surface-based buoyancy, which combined with strong large-scale
forcing for ascent/frontal convergence is generating a broken squall
line. Winds have recently gusted to 50kt at KSYI along the stronger
southern line segment over TN. While buoyancy will remain weak ahead
of this convective line, gusty winds will likely continue due to
aforementioned supportive short-wave trough and surging cold front.

..Darrow/Guyer.. 02/17/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35348661 38048473 37808432 35158514 35348661
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