[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue Feb 22 07:31:12 CST 2022

ACUS11 KWNS 221331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221330
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-221500-

Mesoscale Discussion 0168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

Areas affected...Portions of eastern AR...extreme northwestern
MS...western/middle TN...western/central KY...extreme southeastern
IL...and southern IN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 25...

Valid 221330Z - 221500Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 25 continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, including the potential for a
brief tornado or two, continues across remaining valid portions of
Tornado Watch 25. The need for a downstream watch into central
Kentucky and more of middle Tennessee is unclear.

DISCUSSION...The northern segment of an extensive squall line
continues to move quickly eastward across western KY/TN this
morning. Sporadic reports of wind damage and a measured severe gust
have occurred with this line over the past couple of hours. The
bowing segment in western KY is beginning to show signs of
weakening, as it encounters a less unstable airmass (MUCAPE less
than 500 J/kg). The segment in western TN is maintaining its
intensity a little better owing to marginally greater low-level
moisture and related boundary-layer instability. In the short term,
isolated strong to damaging winds and a brief tornado or two should
remain the primary threats, as very strong low-level and deep-layer
shear is still evident along/ahead of the line per recent VWPs from
KNQA/KHPX. The trailing portion of the line in eastern AR should
have a more isolated wind threat due to a large component of storm
motion parallel to the strong southwesterly flow aloft.

The need for a downstream watch into central KY and more of middle
TN remains unclear. Less instability is present over these areas
(reference the 12Z sounding from BNA), which suggests the overall
severe threat should gradually diminish this morning with eastward
extent. Still, the low-level shear and effective SRH are forecast to
remain quite strong. Regardless, convective trends will be closely
monitored for signs that a severe threat may persist farther east of
Tornado Watch 25.

..Gleason.. 02/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34729161 35239088 35928953 36118887 36538828 37078835
            37488834 38078789 38268744 38318687 38268613 38038577
            37588566 36588577 35908645 35428819 35028936 34569141
            34729161
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