[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132148
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0483
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Southern Kentucky into northern Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...124...

Valid 132148Z - 132345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122, 124 continues.

SUMMARY...An organized squall line will continue to push east into
middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky over the next couple of
hours. The greatest near-term tornado potential will reside ahead of
a bowing segment in southwestern Kentucky, but damaging winds and
brief embedded tornadoes remain possible along the entire line.

DISCUSSION...The line of storms that has emerged from northeast AR
is now a well-organized squall line with a balanced inflow/outflow
convergence zone from western KY into the Memphis, TN area. Several
embedded circulations have been noted over the past hour within the
line, and wind damage has also been reported. In general, the
overall convective environment immediately downstream of this line
remains favorable for QLCS maintenance as MLCAPE continues to slowly
increase (up to 1000-1500 J/kg per latest RAP mesoanalysis and
forecast soundings) with 45-55 knot effective bulk shear over the
region. As such, the severe threat will likely persist into middle
TN and southern KY in the coming hours.

The most severe section of the line resides across southwestern KY
where a bowing segment is noted immediately south of a broad
book-end vortex (noted in recent KPAH imagery). This bowing segment
will not only be favorable for widespread damaging winds, but is
oriented more orthogonal to low-level shear vectors, which is
supportive of embedded circulations and brief tornadoes. Forecast
soundings suggest the veering 0-3 km hodograph structure noted in
KHPX VWP observations will persist through at least 00Z, which will
maintain the tornado threat. Further south along the line, embedded
circulations remain possible, but will be conditional on more
meridional line re-orientations. To address this tornado potential a
downstream tornado watch will likely be needed soon.

..Moore.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35658979 36268919 36908906 37348833 37708713 37748639
            37458585 36918568 36498574 36108628 35758708 35488832
            35298924 35188972 35388994 35658979
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