[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132313
ALZ000-TNZ000-140115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 132313Z - 140115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across parts of
northern Alabama, where wind damage will be possible. Weather watch
issuance will likely be needed as a severe convective line
approaches from the west early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar from far northern Alabama shows a
severe convective line ongoing from western Tennessee into northern
Mississippi. This line is located at the northern end of a
moderately unstable airmass where MLCAPE is estimated in the 1000 to
1500 J/kg range. The line is also located near the eastern edge of a
mid-level jet that is moving northeastward through the Ozarks. The
jet is creating strong deep-layer shear across much of the region.
The latest WSR-88D VWP near the MS-AL state line northeast of
Tupelo, MS has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, with strong speed shear
in the lowest 2 km. Although instability decreases with eastward
extent, a severe threat could be maintained with the convective line
as it moves eastward, mainly due to the strong deep-layer shear.
Wind damage would be the primary threat with the more intense parts
of the line, but hail would also be possible.

..Broyles/Grams.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   33658546 33598690 33658783 33898818 35028798 34998571
            33658546
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