[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 132022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132022
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-132115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0481
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...much of western Kentucky...southern Illinois...and
far southwest Indiana.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 132022Z - 132115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging wind and tornado threat is increasing into the
evening.

DISCUSSION...Northward moisture advection has struggled to get north
of central Tennessee, likely as a result of dry air entertainment
from the residual dry airmass, and convection to the southwest.
However, at least weak instability has developed along the Ohio
River with around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. The current environment is not
overly favorable, but it should improve as stronger forcing and
mid-level flow overspreads the region. This may result in a
northward expansion of the better developed squall line across
southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas into the evening hours. If
this occurs, the threat for damaging winds will increase. In
addition, despite some low-level veering this afternoon, some
backing is expected into the evening which should lead to an
increasing tornado threat. Therefore, a tornado watch has been
coordinated with NWS Paducah.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36548942 37108894 37448825 37598795 37628729 37588691
            36718768 36498814 36518922 36548942
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