[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131942
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-132045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...the Missouri
Bootheel...western Tennessee...and northern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 122...

Valid 131942Z - 132045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 122 continues.

SUMMARY...A squall line is strengthening across northeast Arkansas
and may pose an increasing damaging wind and tornado threat.

DISCUSSION...Storm evolution has been messy across most of the
moderate risk area so far today. However, recent radar imagery from
KNQA shows at least some strengthening within a squall line across
northeast Arkansas. This more favorable radar appearance coincides
with the activity moving into a more unstable airmass with MLCAPE
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Continued warming/moistening ahead of this
line should lead to additional strengthening through the
afternoon/evening. A 57 knot wind gust was recently observed in
Jonesboro, Arkansas, showing observational evidence of the
strengthening line.

The KNQA VWP shows around 50 knots of flow at 1 km with some
low-level directional shear. Therefore, QLCS tornadoes will be
possible within this line as it matures and moves east. The line
already has a LEWP appearance with multiple inflection points which
could aid in swaths of stronger wind damage and potential QLCS
tornadoes.

..Bentley.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   35129077 35199082 35539081 35989074 36459045 36518886
            36438806 35668797 35218818 35008911 35039024 35129077

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