[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 131732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131732
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and
Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 131732Z - 131930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Rapid destabilization is expected across portions of the
Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley

DISCUSSION...A stable airmass is currently in place across the lower
Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley in the wake of a morning MCV.
However, low-level moisture is expected to improve significantly
over the next several hours. The leading edge of richer Gulf
moisture can now be seen on visible satellite where the cu field is
expanding north across Mississippi and western Alabama.
Extrapolating northward movement of this better moisture and
northeastward movement of ongoing thunderstorm activities, it
appears better low-level moisture will arrive prior to the
convective line east of the Mississippi River and possibly slightly
west. Expect this better moisture to reach the Missouri bootheel
around 19-20Z, southern Illinois 20-21Z and southern Indiana around
22Z. MLCAPE is expected to increase to the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range
ahead of these storms which should be sufficiently unstable to not
only support a significant severe weather threat with the squall
line, but also potentially allow for some more discrete convection
to develop ahead of the line. In addition, surface winds are
expected to back across the warm sector as the upper-level trough
advances northeastward. Therefore, significant elongation of the
low-level hodographs is anticipated. Therefore, all severe weather
hazards are expected this afternoon/evening including the potential
for 75+ mph wind gusts and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. A
tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 1 to 2 hours.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   37278684 35518795 35048834 35058958 34999027 35039104
            35359127 35769095 36179073 36729029 37738951 38688785
            38628702 38058659 37278684
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