[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062043
TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-062145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Areas affected...portions of northeast Alabama into far northwest
Georgia...eastern Tennessee...and extreme southeast Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 062043Z - 062145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop with storms that initiate
along a cold front, posing a threat for damaging gusts. A couple
instances of severe hail/tornadoes are also possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms have struggled to develop within the warm sector
environment 50-150 nautical miles ahead of the cold front despite
ample diurnal heating and the presence of adequate buoyancy.
However, storms have been developing along and immediately behind
the cold front over the past hour. An uptick in storm coverage and
intensity is possible over the next few hours as the cold front
continues to progress eastward. The 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, driven by
60-65 F surface dewpoints and steep low-level lapse rates, along
with 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that damaging gusts may
be the main threat with the more organized multicells/transient
supercells that can develop. However, a few surface observations
along a CHA to CPF line show some backing of the surface winds. Any
storms that can mature amid these back winds may exhibit at least
brief bouts of strong low-level rotation, with severe hail and a
couple of tornadoes possible.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34438741 36278538 36958480 36998447 36958373 36728312
            36028301 35598350 35168407 34668452 34358525 34228613
            34438741
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