[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061759
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-062000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0424
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Wed Apr 06 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Mississippi into northern
Alabama and Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061759Z - 062000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated damaging gusts/large hail may occur with
the stronger storms that can become sustained along the cold front.
Conditions are currently being monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to drift southeast as an upper
low drifts towards the Great Lakes. Relatively rich low-level
moisture has advected northward ahead of the front, with upper 60s F
dewpoints noted as far north as the TN/AL border. 7-8 C/km mid-level
lapse rates have overspread the warm sector, contributing to MLCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg across the Southeast, decreasing to 500 J/kg into
KY. CU have been steadily growing from eastern MS into northern AL.
While modest deep-layer shear exists over the warm sector, the
stronger low-level flow lags behind the cold front. Nonetheless, any
storms that manage to become sustained and organized may achieve
multicellular/transient supercell structures capable of producing
damaging gusts or large hail given the aforementioned buoyancy. A WW
issuance is possible over the next few hours.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 04/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   36918543 36908501 36658486 36358494 35818522 35258550
            34858576 34388634 33938720 33588810 33488842 33428856
            33408869 33528892 35138710 36478590 36918543
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