[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 040918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040917
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-041045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Areas affected...western portions of Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140...

Valid 040917Z - 041045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140
continues.

SUMMARY...Rick for primarily damaging winds continues locally across
WW 140.  New WW may be needed east of the current watch, as storms
advance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a bowing band of storms moving
across far western portions of Kentucky and Tennessee at this time.
The strongest storms occurring in the vicinity of the
Kentucky/Tennessee border, where outflow continues to surge eastward
just to the south of a mesolow currently located between Cape
Girardeau and Paducah.  Strong/locally damaging wind gusts remain
possible ahead of this portion of the line.

Meanwhile, some weakening of convection has occurred farther south
along the band, into southwestern Tennessee.  Here, updrafts are
largely occurring just west of outflow at the leading edge of the
cold pool, in a slightly elevated manner.

Overall however, with the 06Z KBNA RAOB observing very steep lapse
rates aloft, above a shallow/stable boundary layer, continuation of
at least locally vigorous convection -- and associated potential for
strong/damaging gusts -- is expected over the next couple of hours
as storms advance eastward.  A new WW may be needed as storms near
the eastern fringe of WW 140.

..Goss.. 05/04/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   34979074 35648967 36498866 36938900 37318913 37718636
            37218492 35078593 35038903 34979074
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