[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Tue May 4 01:17:35 CDT 2021

ACUS11 KWNS 040617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040617
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-040815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Areas affected...portions of southern and western Kentucky into
northern Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 040617Z - 040815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms -- capable of producing hail up to
about 1.5" in diameter -- will continue over the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows scattered thunderstorms which
have gradually increased in coverage over the past 1 to 2 hours from
western Kentucky into northern Middle Tennessee.  The storms are
occurring within an area of weak QG forcing ahead of a subtle vort
max crossing the area, aided by substantial elevated CAPE/steep
mid-level lapse rates.  Moderate flow aloft is sufficient for
isolated stronger updrafts, and while the elevated nature of the
convection suggests only limited wind risk, large hail will remain
possible with stronger cells.

..Goss/Guyer.. 05/04/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36938430 35908488 36268575 36768762 37428772 37828732
            37688614 36938430
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