[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 222130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222129
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Fri May 22 2020

Areas affected...Portions of the mid South

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222129Z - 222300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A long lived MCS is ongoing across eastern Arkansas and
western Tennessee. The environment downstream remains somewhat
supportive of severe wind gusts. A watch maybe needed.

DISCUSSION...A few severe wind gusts have recently been reported
near MEM with a long lived MCS. Downstream of the ongoing storms,
MLCAPE of 1500 to 2500 J/KG and bulk shear around 25 kt should
continue to support the MCS. Hi-res guidance has failed to capture
the intensity and structure of the ongoing convection, casting doubt
on the longevity of the threat. However, current observations
support the maintenance of the ongoing storms for the next couple of
hours, and a watch may need to be considered.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 05/22/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35168712 34888753 34868993 34869036 35219052 35529036
            35659017 35808989 35998945 36008884 35908836 35838791
            35598745 35368713 35168712
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