[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281718
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-281845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0751
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020

Areas affected...Northern Mississippi...eastern Arkansas...and
southwest Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 281718Z - 281845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms are expected through
the afternoon. Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible.

DISCUSSION...The 12Z LZK RAOB showed a very weak low-level inversion
and a convective temperature of 73F. As a result, early storm
initation has occurred with scattered storms near the Mississippi
River along the AR/MS border where temperatures have warmed into the
upper 70s to near 80 with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This has yielded
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE according to SPC mesoanalysis. Some further
destabilization is expected ahead of this activity, but will likely
peak around 1500 J/kg before convection/convective debris limits
further heating. Stronger mid-level flow is mostly south of this
storm activity and thus shear is quite weak in the vicinity of these
storms. However, cooler temperatures aloft, near the upper-low have
led to slightly steeper lapse rates (~6.5 C/km) than elsewhere in
the region. Therefore, some stronger storms are possible with the
threat for isolated large hail and occasional gusty winds. However,
the somewhat limited instability given the weakly sheared
environment should limit the overall threat with watch issuance
unlikely.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33909095 34419108 35528993 36078844 35238774 34148861
            33478963 33269059 33909095
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