[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 112028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112027
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-112130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Sat May 11 2019

Areas affected...northeast Mississippi/northern Alabama/southern
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112027Z - 112130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms evolving over northeast Mississippi may pose local
severe/brief tornado risk this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon heating through broken cloud cover over the
discussion area has allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s
locally over parts of northwest Alabama, where objective analysis
shows an axis of 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.  Storms have
continued to gradually increase near a weak frontal low over
northeast Mississippi, and will spread northeast across northwest
Alabama in the next couple of hours.

Recent GWX (Columbus AFB) WSR-88D VWP reveals slightly stronger
shear across this region than areas farther south, with mid-level
west-southwesterlies near 50 kt.  The enhanced shear appears to be
contributing to updraft rotation evident with stronger cells across
this area.

While low-level shear remains weak -- thus suggesting only brief
tornado potential at best, risk for locally gusty/damaging winds
would exist with any of the stronger updrafts, as storms spread into
northwest Alabama and possibly southern Middle Tennessee over the
next couple of hours.

..Goss/Grams.. 05/11/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33358905 34218828 35148705 35318619 34788558 34088579
            32888646 32448793 32578871 33358905
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