[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231939
WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-232115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0754
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Thu May 23 2019

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231939Z - 232115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Developing clusters of storms may pose a severe
hail/damaging wind gust threat, watch possible for parts of the
area.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar shows a few clusters of
multicellular storms developing south of a stationary boundary
draped across parts of central Indiana/Illinois into
central/southern Missouri. Along and south of the boundary, dew
points are in the low 70s F. Diabatic heating in the wake of
overnight/morning convective has allowed temperatures south of the
boundary to warm into low to mid 80s F, resulting in modest
destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg). Effective bulk shear of
35-45 kt will help to maintain multicellular organization of
convection occurring in this region through peak heating.

Given the largely unidirectional shear profiles, severe hail and a
few damaging wind gusts are possible with these storms. At this
time, the most probable corridor of severe potential (i.e.,
overlapping evolution of CAPE/shear combo) appears to be confined to
the eastern part of the MCD area, over portions of central/eastern
Kentucky, southern Ohio, and West Virginia (ahead of the ongoing
convective activity). Should storms here continue to organize and
become more widespread, a watch may be needed.

..Karstens/Hart.. 05/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...
MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38149066 37629121 36779094 36378826 37268560 37438427
            37258259 38078192 39068254 39538389 39648594 38688754
            38208905 38149066
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