[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 091847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091847
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-092015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Thu May 09 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 091847Z - 092015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A fast northeast-moving convective line will continue to
pose a wind damage risk along with the potential for a brief tornado
from northeast Alabama into northwest Georgia/southeast Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized convective line continues to
accelerate (40-45 kt) northeastward across northeast Alabama as of
130pm CDT. It is likely now being aided by an MCV with 50+
southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-2km AGL noted per recent
Huntsville AL WSR-88D VWP data. Bowing segments aside, low-level
shear vs. line orientation has been favorable for mesovortex
evolution within the line. Primary short-term uncertainty is a
considerable downstream weakening of overall buoyancy into northwest
Georgia, and particularly with northward extent across southeast
Tennessee. However, line-preceding lapse rates are relatively steep
with temperatures in the upper 70s/near 80F. Furthermore, the
well-organized/fast-forward motion of the line itself suggests that
isolated wind damage will remain a possibility into southeast
Tennessee/northwest Georgia. That said, the overall QLCS is expected
to undergo a weakening trend over the next 1-2 hours (particularly
on the north end of the convective line).

..Guyer.. 05/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34198622 34828636 35388557 35578456 34528410 33208496
            33578569 34198622
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