[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 010038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010037
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Areas affected...Southern Missouri...Far Southern Illinois...Western
Kentucky...Western Tennessee...Northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138...

Valid 010037Z - 010230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue this evening across parts of
the mid Mississippi Valley where large hail, wind damage and perhaps
an isolated tornado threat will be possible. WW 138 will be replaced
with a new severe thunderstorm watch for many of the same areas and
extending southward across northeast Arkansas and northwest
Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has markedly increased over the
last couple hours across southern Missouri in the western part of WW
138. This activity is being supported by moderate instability and
large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough located over
the mid Mississippi Valley. A mid-level speed max of about 50 kt is
creating strong deep-layer shear across much of the region. This
combined with steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7.0 to 8.0 C/km
range will support supercells with large hail. Damaging wind gusts
will also be possible and this threat may increase especially if the
cells can organize into a linear MCS this evening. An isolated
tornado threat will also be possible but this threat is expected to
gradually diminish over the next hour or two.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35698895 35549055 35809241 36269284 37029264 37739069
            37728733 36578699 36078760 35698895
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