[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 312247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312246
TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0546 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Areas affected...Far Northeast Arkansas...Far southeast
Missouri...Western and Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 312246Z - 010115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may develop east-southeastward from
north-central Arkansas to middle Tennessee where large hail and wind
damage will be possible later this evening. Weather watch issuance
could be needed depending upon radar trends over the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing
in southern Missouri which is associated with a mid Mississippi
Valley shortwave trough and corridor of moderate instability.
Regional WSR-88D VWPs show 0-6 km shear values in the 30 to 40 kt
range and the RAP has a pocket of steep mid-level lapse rates
located across western Tennessee. This suggests that supercells with
isolated large hail will be possible early this evening. Supercells
may track slightly south of east suggesting that some severe cells
could move to just south of the watch into parts north-central
Arkansas into western and middle Tennessee later this evening. If a
linear MCS can organize, then a wind damage threat would also be
likely.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   35788641 35618744 35578909 35559086 35589218 35929245
            36249234 36479177 36608943 36638648 35788641
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