[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 312143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312142
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-312345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...Far Northeast
Arkansas...Southern Illinois...Western Kentucky

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138...

Valid 312142Z - 312345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 138
continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to increase over the next
few hours across WW 138. Large hail and wind damage will also be
possible with the stronger thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary is evident on satellite imagery
across southeast Missouri where scattered thunderstorm have
developed over the last few hours. Surface dewpoints near the
boundary are in the lower 70s F which is contributing to moderate
instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE values in the 2000 to 2500
J/kg range in most of southern Missouri extending westward into
western Kentucky. A subtle shortwave trough is evident across the
mid Mississippi Valley and lower Missouri Valley according to water
vapor imagery. Large-scale ascent associated with this feature will
aide convective initiation and cell coverage should increase over
the next couple of hours. A mid-level speed max around 50 kt located
just ahead of the shortwave is helping to create moderate to strong
deep-layer shear profiles across southeast Missouri and western
Kentucky which will be favorable for supercells. In addition,
low-level flow is forecast to increase over the next few hours. This
will help create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. The
environment will also support a potential for isolated large hail
and wind damage.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36478733 36318899 36339165 36959217 37869133 37788749
            36478733
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