[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 312131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312131
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-312230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Areas affected...Southeast KY...northeast TN...and extreme southwest
VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 312131Z - 312230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Multiple storm/boundary mergers will support a threat of
isolated downburst winds and/or marginally severe hail through about
23z.  The limited magnitude and duration of the threat suggest a
watch is probably not necessary.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary is moving southward into south
central and southeast KY with ongoing convection, and is beginning
to merge with outflow from a separate cluster in northeast middle
TN.  A narrow corridor of surface heating and moderate buoyancy
remains in the corridor where these boundaries will merger over the
next 1-2 hours, to the northwest of rain-cooled air across the
southern Appalachians.  Vertical shear is weak over the area of the
boundary mergers, but low-midlevel lapse rates are sufficiently
steep to support strong updrafts and downdrafts, with an attendant
threat for isolated downbursts and/or marginally severe hail.  The
severe threat will persist through about 23z, with weakening of the
convection expected thereafter.

..Thompson.. 05/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36128320 36038383 36038454 36058483 36308488 36568509
            36648549 36748566 36918562 37018510 36918437 36788389
            36698332 36708285 36778229 36598213 36328225 36128320
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