[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221735
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0822
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Mississippi...Southern
Tennessee...Northern Alabama...and far Northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221735Z - 221900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms expected this afternoon with large
hail and damaging winds as the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...In addition to ongoing convection in eastern
Mississippi and western Alabama, numerous storms have developed
along and ahead of a cold front in northern Alabama and southern
Tennessee where moderate instability has developed. Unseasonably
strong flow (greater than 50 knots above 6 km per KGWX VWP) will
lead to sufficient effective shear for storm organization including
a few rotating updrafts. Indeed, initial returns from the KHTX
WSR-88D are showing some mid-level rotation. Expect a mixed mode of
multicell clusters and supercell structures with damaging winds as
the primary threat. Weak mid-level lapse rates will temper the
overall hail threat, however there is a better chance for isolated
large hail with the storms in northern Alabama where both
instability and shear will be maximized. An isolated tornado is also
possible in this area as low-level hodographs show some curvature
with westerly flow around 30 knots at 1 km per KGWX VWP. The
widespread storm coverage may lead to enough convective turnover to
prevent a more widespread severe threat, but given MUCAPE of 1000 to
2000 J/kg and effective shear of 35-45 knots, a severe thunderstorm
watch is possible.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 06/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35218796 35498762 36028614 36278506 36278465 36188415
            35828403 34908461 34598497 34238531 33818581 33698630
            33428706 33268780 33398860 33648922 34178935 34378924
            35218796
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