[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 231532
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231532
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-231700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Tennessee Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231532Z - 231700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A small thunderstorm complex with some damaging wind
potential will continue east across the region through early
afternoon. A watch could be considered, if convective trends
warrant.

DISCUSSION...A localized convective system, likely enhanced by an
MCV and focused confluence/ascent, is moving east across southern TN
and northern AL around 35-45 mph this morning. 12Z regional
soundings sampled unimpressive mid-level lapse rates, and continued
precipitation to the south is limiting insolation ahead of this
line. Furthermore, KCRX in northeast MS did not register a strong
surface gust with passage of the line. Still, some filtered sunlight
(with a modest enhancement of low-level lapse rates) and around
35-45 kt of 850-500mb flow may support enough downward momentum
transport for a few damaging gusts through early afternoon, and a
watch may be considered if organizational trends warrant.

..Picca/Thompson.. 06/23/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35398821 35598677 35778507 35638472 35268447 34498459
            34218483 34048567 33958736 34558801 35398821
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
http://www.nashvilleweather.net

Follow us on Facebook at:
http://www.facebook.com/nashvilleweather

Follow us on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/nashwxnet