[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202242
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-210045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0803
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0542 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Areas affected...Far Southeast Indiana...Central Kentucky...Middle
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...

Valid 202242Z - 210045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and hail will be possible across the
eastern part of WW 254 over the next couple of hours. The severe
threat is expected to gradually decrease later this evening as the
storms move eastward into a less favorable environment. For this
reason, weather watch issuance is not expected to the east of the
current watch. However, a local extension could be needed if parts
of the line remain strong enough to produce isolated damaging wind
gusts.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a line of strong to
severe thunderstorms oriented from south to north across middle
Tennessee and central Kentucky. This line of convection is located
along an old outflow boundary from the previous night's storms.
Ahead of the line, the airmass is weakly unstable with the RAP
estimating MLCAPE values in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. The RAP also
suggests that deep-layer shear drops off quickly with eastward
extent. For this reason, the storms are expected to decrease in
intensity later this evening as the convection approaches the
eastern edge of WW 254.

..Broyles.. 05/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36458857 38538711 39918538 39268393 37418549 35848757
            36458857
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