[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 201613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201613
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-201745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Areas affected...Northwest TN...Western KY...Southeast
IN...Southwest OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 201613Z - 201745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected to develop
across portions of the Ohio Valley this afternoon.  Locally damaging
winds are possible.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer heating is contributing to increased
buoyancy south of the OH River across much of KY and TN.
Surface-3km lapse rates have increased to near 8 C/km and CINH is
very weak across this region.  Over the last half hour or so CU
field has expanded markedly across western TN/KY such that showers
are developing, and evening isolated thunderstorms.  It appears
convection will gradually deepen along a boundary that is currently
draped from southern IN, southwest into western TN.  This activity
is evolving along eastern-most fringe of stronger flow aloft that
will aid potential storm organization.  Locally damaging winds may
accompany this activity as it spreads/develops northeast into
southern portions of IN/OH.

..Darrow/Weiss.. 05/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36458857 38538711 39918538 39268393 37418549 35848757
            36458857
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