[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211852
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...KENTUCKY INTO SRN WEST VIRGINIA/SWRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211852Z - 212045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME HAIL AND THE RISK FOR
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WATCH PROBABLY WILL BE ISSUED
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...INSOLATION BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A
REMNANT SOUTHWARD ADVANCING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING ALREADY
APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING DEEPENING CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT.
INTENSIFICATION INTO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH 20-22Z...PERHAPS AIDED BY ONE OR MORE
WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 30-35 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW.  VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
EVOLUTION OF SMALL ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
POOLS CAPABLE OF GENERATING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/21/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   37768795 37888576 38258395 38128252 37888086 36928156
            36498462 36938781 37768795
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