[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 082224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082224
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-090000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN TN...WRN VA...AND WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277...

VALID 082224Z - 090000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BROKEN BANDS OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN
INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DOWNSTREAM WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS ILLUSTRATE SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION NEAR THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND POINTS WEST EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A 51-KT GUST
RECORDED AT 2153Z AT KTRI. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONGER CELLS WERE
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST OVER NC...SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A NWWD-PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING IMPULSE ALOFT IS
WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG PER LATEST
MESO-ANALYSIS/ TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT PASSING TO THE NORTH...AND WITH
RELATIVELY MEAGER MID-LEVEL FLOW /E.G. 6-KM WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS
IN LATEST KGSP VWP/...SUSTAINED UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION ON A LARGE
SPATIAL SCALE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO THE EAST OF WW 277. AS
SUCH...DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE PASSAGE OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
NONETHELESS...MERGING COLD POOLS/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS AMIDST A
MOIST/WELL-MIXED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
WINDS GUSTS THIS EVENING.

..PICCA.. 06/08/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...OHX...

LAT...LON   37057852 35747955 35148100 35218149 35058310 35028437
            35118570 36178430 36638321 37088187 37388075 37667905
            37637838 37057852
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