[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 261650
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261650
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-261845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NRN AR...SRN IL AND IN...WRN KY AND NWRN
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261650Z - 261845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SERN MO/NERN AR INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
SWRN MO...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT DOWNSTREAM LATER TODAY. OTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL WITH ONE OR
MORE WATCHES LIKELY BY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE MAP SHOWS A LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM ERN MO INTO WRN
KY/SRN INDIANA AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT FROM NERN OK INTO SWRN MO.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CU ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN KY
PORTION. MEANWHILE...HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES UPSTREAM
INTO AR WITH SWLY SFC WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ALREADY NEAR 90 F.
INCREASED MIXING...AS WELL AS A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE 850 MB FLOW
SHOULD WASH OUT THIS BOUNDARY WITH TIME...AND WILL HELP DESTABILIZE
THE OH RIVER REGION.

WHILE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER SWRN MO MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE
WITH ATTENDANT WIND THREAT...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK BOUNDARIES AND A
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALSO SUGGESTS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...SUGGESTING MAINLY A MULTICELLUAR STORM MODE AWAY FROM THE
COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LINEAR.

..JEWELL/HART.. 06/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...
SGF...

LAT...LON   36938585 36078726 35768990 35829290 36119326 36609306
            37269175 38009080 38928840 39098714 38898588 38228538
            37688545 36938585
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