[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 201806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201805
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-201930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...AL...TN...KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 201805Z - 201930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN
TN...ERN KY. POORLY ORGANIZED AND RANDOM NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD
KEEP OVERALL SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISKS LOW AND A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN INSTABILITY
AXIS FROM THE TN VALLEY NORTH AND EAST TO ERN KY WHERE LATEST
OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATED MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING
INHIBITION. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY ALSO BE CONTRIBUTING TO RECENT
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS CORRIDOR WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 80S LOWER 90S F AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MIDDLE 70S F. EXPECT THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED AND
PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN WEAK FLOW/SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MIDLEVEL WLY WINDS AROUND 20KT AT BEST. SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY AS MCV AND MIDLEVEL SPEED
MAX APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AT PRESENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THIS WILL OCCUR IN TIME TO INFLUENCE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECT
ONLY AN ISOLATED AND LOCALLY SHORT-LIVED DOWNBURST WIND RISK...OR
MARGINAL ISOLATED HAIL...ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/20/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   37838430 37958410 37968353 37608292 37138294 35878389
            35108488 34568597 34488651 34848719 35328735 35838728
            36898587 37328516 37838430
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