[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 202324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202323
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-210100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL /  SWRN IND / WRN KY / SERN MO / NERN AR /
WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 202323Z - 210100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  A WATCH IS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM W OF EVV WSWWD TO NORTH OF POF
ALONG AND JUST TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF A ENE-WSW-ORIENTED
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION.  LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN CONCERT WITH DCVA ATTENDANT
TO AN MCV PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY ARE LIKELY THE
PRIMARY MECHANISMS FORCING THIS ACTIVITY.

RAP-BASED ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS INVOF THIS BOUNDARY IS
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 3000 J/KG.  WHEN
COUPLED WITH A WIND PROFILE EXHIBITING SOME VEERING OF THE WINDS
WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST /30-35 KT/ VERTICAL SHEAR /PER PAH WSR-88D
VAD/...THE SETUP WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND POTENTIALLY BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS SPREAD SEWD THROUGH WRN KY.  A BRIEF
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED.

..MEAD/DIAL.. 07/20/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36549196 36929203 37519068 37868956 38168849 38248766
            37768698 37158723 36778749 36358813 36128944 36339166
            36549196
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