[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181805
NCZ000-SCZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-KYZ000-182000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181805Z - 182000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL /POSSIBLY APPROACHING ONE INCH IN DIAMETER/
AND ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN A VERY
MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS PRESENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE
ANEMIC DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT AN ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. INSTEAD...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FAVOR ISOLATED
TO MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND ISOLATED
TREE DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG/GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS STEMMING
FROM WATER-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS. WHAT LITTLE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THERE IS
HAS A PREDOMINANTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO IT...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION TO
THUNDERSTORMS.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF/PULSATING NATURE OF THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORM CORES...A WEATHER WATCH SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED.

..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 07/18/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...
JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36988670 37198397 36577970 36477813 35537787 34657850
            33847948 33838038 34068214 34318395 35088545 36988670
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