[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150425
TNZ000-150600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 150425Z - 150600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING AND POSSIBLY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE/EAST TN...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED/MARGINAL.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN CORRIDOR OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TN
LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS...WHICH ARE
LIKELY AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...ARE NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF A COLD
FRONT AND ARE CURRENTLY THRIVING WITHIN A NARROW WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FEED OF UNSTABLE AIR. STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH
40-50 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS PER NASHVILLE WSR-88D VWP DATA...WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS FOR A TIME. VERY LOCALIZED WIND
DAMAGE MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVENESS OF PRIOR CONVECTION EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO
WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TN...AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE/CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR MASS.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 07/15/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   36528765 36508597 35978473 35538448 35248466 35428763
            36528765
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