[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 150007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150006
WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-150130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EAST-CENTRAL KY/SOUTHERN WV/FAR WESTERN
VA/NORTHEAST TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425...

VALID 150006Z - 150130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH MID-EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KY/SOUTHERN WV/FAR WESTERN VA...BUT POTENTIALLY ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST-CENTRAL KY/NORTHERN TN. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425
CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z.

DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE SQUALL LINE WITH SOME EMBEDDED BOWING
SEGMENTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WV/FAR EASTERN KY AND APPROACHING FAR
WESTERN VA AS OF 00Z/8PM EDT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING-WIND
THREAT OVER THE FEW HOURS. FARTHER WEST...A MOIST/MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WESTERLY FEED AND RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES HAVE LED TO A
RECENT INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE INTENSITY VIA DUAL SEMI-BROKEN
BANDS OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KY...TO THE SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. A 47-KT THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUST WAS RECENTLY /2331Z/ MEASURED AT LOUISVILLE KY. MLCAPE
ESTIMATED TO BE UPWARDS OF 1500-2500 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE INTENSIFICATION/SUSTENANCE OF STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME MARGINAL HAIL ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/FAR SOUTHEAST KY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN MIDDLE/NORTHEAST TN. THAT SAID...THE AIR MASS HAS AND WILL
HAVE LITTLE TIME TO APPRECIABLY RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF PREVIOUS
CONVECTION ACROSS TN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING
TREND INTO LATE EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT.

..GUYER.. 07/15/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   38218582 37998454 37808292 37698174 37658125 36598190
            36288284 36078387 36228511 37058632 37648658 38218582
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