[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 142224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142224
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-150030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF TENNESSEE...NORTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN
ALABAMA...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423...424...

VALID 142224Z - 150030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
423...424...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH SOUTHWARD
FORWARD-PROPAGATING STORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE
EVENING.  PARTS OF WW 423 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AT
THIS TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GIVEN VERY STRONG DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION...WITH 90-96F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MID 70S
DEWPOINTS CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE.  DEEP SHEAR IS
MODEST...BUT STORMS ARE ORGANIZED ALONG A MATURE SOUTHWARD-MOVING
COLD POOL...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL
INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS WW 424.  AN MCV NEAR MKL MAY ALSO
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND A 65-MPH WIND GUST WAS
REPORTED IN SHELBY COUNTY TENNESSEE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH
THE REGION.

FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS STABILIZED THE AIRMASS
ACROSS NORTHERN TENNESSEE TO THE SOUTH AN OUTFLOW NEAR THE
TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER. UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGION HAVE GENERALLY
STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE...AND THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT THERE IS
LOWER COMPARED TO AREAS SOUTH.  PARTS OF WW 423 MAY BE CANCELLED
EARLY DUE TO THE LESSENED THREAT THERE.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WW 424.  THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT DUE TO WEAKER DEEP SHEAR THAN AREAS
FARTHER EAST...BUT THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGEST
CORES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND MAY WEAKEN
SOME AFTER SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF INSOLATION.

..COOK/EDWARDS.. 07/14/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   35229191 35259084 35348940 35968853 36458733 36568603
            36388411 35308251 34408239 33668261 33448326 33198409
            33428601 33738877 34179078 34549173 34879214 35079213
            35229191
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